Sometimes World Rugby’s ranking system gets a bit of a flack. Largely because you need a degree in pure mathematics to understand it. It was reported that the late great Stephen Hawking had to have them explained to him twice (that is not true before anyone complains). 

But whether you agree with who is the best team in the world, or if you think your team should be fifth instead of sixth in the rankings, this current top ten is as competitive as it has ever been. The recent Autumn Series has proved that.

It was without doubt the best Autumn Series that we’ve seen, with every fixture within the top ten being largely competitive. It was made even more enjoyable, it must be said, due to it all being televised in one place – on TNT Sports. It felt like one product, one brand, which is important for a series that can otherwise feel like a mishmash of friendlies. 

It was not always so competitive

Kieren Read and Richie McCaw look at the Rugby World Cup (Getty Images)

You need only look at the top of the current table and see how many times the lead has switched hands between Ireland and South Africa, to understand just how competitive it is amongst the big dogs. It hasn’t always been this way. From 2010 ish to 2019 ish, New Zealand were ranked top for that entire period – that’s Russian oligarch levels of domination. Although it must be said that later in 2019, the top spot swapped between four teams – the All Blacks, Ireland, England and Wales.

This autumn, from a purely subjective viewpoint, each team in the top ten felt like they had a genuine chance to compete with the other. There were very few fixtures where supporters would have been crushing valium into their coffee for fear of a gut-wrenching outcome. 

But the real measure of the competitiveness of the top ten isn’t really at the top of that ten, but in the middle/ bottom – with teams like Italy. 20 years ago, Italy were losing by points differences of 30+ against premium teams like the All Blacks, in 2024 they were within 18 points. 

England are arguably the most competitive seventh ranked team that there’s ever been. Admittedly, England’s supporters aren’t happy with the results. Neither are many of the English based media – and given England’s player pool and resources they may be right. But England were within nine points of South Africa, five points away from Australia, and two points of the All Blacks. That’s quite an achievement for a team down in seventh and not something that would have been the case a decade ago. If you were ranked seventh ten years ago, playing teams in the top four, you’d have expected to have been largely blown away. Also, let’s not forget that Argentina, ranked fifth, were two points away from beating Ireland, in Ireland. 

But analysing a few scores here and there doesn’t quite do the competitiveness of the top ten justice. Digging a little deeper we can see that the key performance indicators are very close indeed. You would assume that those teams in the top three of the World Rugby rankings would have vastly different numbers than those in the bottom three or middle third, but that isn’t the case.

Before we look at some of the stats, we do need to caveat them off. The numbers are an average over the Autumn Series, and some teams faced stronger opposition than others. But as a baseline they still present represent the competitiveness of the top ten.

As competitive as it gets

Australia beat England in the Autumn Nations Series 2024. (Photo by Andrew Kearns – CameraSport via Getty Images)

Australia are a fantastic example. Currently eighth in the rankings, one of their lowest ever, yet outscoring many of those ranked above them. Australia averaged 4.7 tries per game over the autumn, which is a fantastic number. Compared to 4.0 from Ireland, 3.3 from Argentina and 2.5 from the All Blacks. It’s not just in attacking stats where Australia outscore some of those teams above them – stats that you’d almost expect given the way Joe Schmidt has the Wallabies attacking wide from all positions and shredding blitz defences with their intricate passing and footwork.

Australia ranked eight were also top for the number of times that the gainline was crossed. The Wallabies crossed the gainline on average 79 times per game, whereas South and the All Blacks were down at around 65 gainline carries per game. The Wallabies were also top for scrums won with seven per game, with Ireland surprisingly down at 5.3.

But competitiveness doesn’t begin and end with scoring stats. Italy for example had the best maul during the Autumn Series, which is a key component in the modern game. They won 5.5 mauls per game, beating both Ireland and South Africa who had 3.0 and 3.7 maul wins respectively per game – a stat in which you’d assume they’d have dominance over Italy. Italy also had a more dominant lineout than France – a full 8% better infact which is massive at test level.

One of the most interesting pieces of data which highlights the competitiveness of the top ten is ‘turnovers won’. Virtually all of the teams range between 5.2 and 7.7 turnovers won per game (except France, who had an incredible 9.0), proving just how effective modern defences and defensive breakdown work has become. You can’t really break into the top ten without having a full squad of players who are capable ‘over the ball’. Whereas a decade ago this role was largely performed by three to four players on the field.

All of which bodes well for the upcoming Six Nations and could lead to a seriously competitive tournament. Italy beating England used to be a pipe dream, possibly fuelled by someone smoking something illegal in that pipe, now it’s a very real possibility. We also have a situation where Ireland, Scotland, France and England could all realistically beat each other and win the tournament. Many people over 50 will have you believe that rugby was better ‘back then’, it isn’t. It’s better and more competitive than it ever has been.

Disclaimer: All of the data and rankings were correct at the time of writing. If they have changed, it isn’t the author’s fault. He hasn’t done it to persecute you. Please don’t burn his house down, or scratch his car.

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