France v Scotland: Six Nations title permutations

Wales’ hopes of a second Six Nations Grand Slam in three years may be over but they can still win the championship – depending what happens in the match between France and Scotland on Friday.

Despite their 32-30 defeat by France on Saturday night in Paris, Wales still top the Six Nations table with 20 points – and their losing bonus point, for finishing within seven points, could be crucial in the title race.

France are currently third in the table on 15 points and chasing their first Six Nations title since 2010, while Scotland are fourth on 11, but could finish as high as second.

Here are the various ways the title race could play out…

France v Scotland: Six Nations title permutations

How can France win the title?

Fabien Galthie’s side go into the Scotland match knowing exactly what they need to do to win a first championship in more than a decade:

• Beat Scotland by at least 21 points and score at least four tries. France would finish level with Wales on 20 points but would be ranked above them due to a better points difference.
• Beat Scotland by exactly 20 points and score at least six tries. France would finish level with Wales on 20 points and have the same points difference of 61 but would be ranked above them having scored more tries (Wales have scored 20 tries, France 15 so far).

How can Wales win the title?

It’s a waiting game for Alun Wyn Jones & Co with the destination of the trophy now out of their hands.

Louis Rees-Zammit breaks through the French defence (Getty Images)

Wales will win the title, which would be their sixth of the Six Nations era, if:

• France lose to Scotland. The maximum points France could reach would be 17.
• France beat Scotland but fail to score four tries. France would reach 19 points so Wales would stay top on 20.
• France beat Scotland and score exactly four tries but the winning margin is 20 points or fewer. The two teams would be level on 20 points and have the same points difference of 61 but Wales would be ranked above France having scored more tries (20 to 19).
• France beat Scotland and score at least four tries but the winning margin is 19 points or fewer. The two teams would be level on 20 points but Wales would be ranked above France due to a better points difference.

How can the title be shared?

This is an unlikely scenario but if any teams in the table cannot be separated on points difference or tries scored, they will be placed equally.

The title will be shared for the first time in Six Nations history if:

• France beat Scotland by exactly 20 points and score exactly five tries. This would put them level with Wales on 20 match points, a points difference of 61 and 20 tries scored.

How can Scotland finish second?

The Scots have never finished higher than third in the Six Nations era but could secure second place if they beat France in Paris for the first time in 22 years.

Gregor Townsend was playing the last time Scotland beat France in Paris, in 1999 (AFP/Getty Images)

Here is what Scotland need to do to clinch second spot:

• Beat France and score at least four tries while limiting the French to a maximum of one bonus point (either scoring four tries or losing by seven points or fewer). If both France and Scotland finish on 16 points, the Scots are ranked higher in the table due to a better points difference.
• Beat France by at least eight points while ensuring France don’t collect a try bonus point. If France, Ireland and Scotland all finish on 15 points, the Scots would move above France and Ireland on points difference.

Just a few more days to wait to find out who will lift the 2021 Six Nations title.

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