France v Wales: Six Nations title permutations

Wales are aiming to secure their second Six Nations Grand Slam in three years after beating Ireland, Scotland, England and Italy. All they have to do is beat France on Saturday in Paris!

Even if Wayne Pivac’s side fall to defeat against France, they can still win the tournament.

France are the only other team in with a chance of winning the title as they have a game in hand – their match against Scotland was postponed in February after a Covid-19 outbreak in the French camp.

They will be keen to bounce back from their defeat by England last weekend and if Fabien Galthie’s men beat Wales, they can still get their hands on the trophy – depending on bonus points and points difference.

It’s not completely straightforward so below we explain all the Six Nations title permutations and here is the table as it stands…

France v Wales: Six Nations title permutations

What happens if Wales beat France?

If Wales are victorious in Paris, the Grand Slam title is signed, sealed and delivered for the men in red. They last won the Grand Slam in 2019 and they will be hoping to repeat that unbeaten run in 2021.

It would be their fifth Grand Slam of the Six Nations era – more than any other country.

What happens if it’s a draw?

Wales would miss out on a Grand Slam if it’s a draw in Paris, but they would win the title. A tie gives a team two points, which would take Wales to 21 in the table and make it impossible for France to catch them.

What happens if France beat Wales?

Here’s where it gets complicated!

France have to win both of their final two matches to have a chance of winning the title but even then it depends on bonus points and points difference.

Let’s look first at the specific permutations of the France v Wales match:

• If France win, with or without a try bonus point (ie five or four match points), and Wales pick up two bonus points – one for losing by seven points or fewer and one for scoring four or more tries – Alun Wyn Jones will be lifting the Six Nations trophy. Wales will have 21 points and France will have 15 or 14, so Wales can’t be overtaken in the table.
• If France win without a try bonus point (ie four match points), and Wales pick up one bonus point – either for losing by seven points or fewer, or for scoring four or more tries – Wales win the title. Wales will have 20 points and France will have 14, so Wales can’t be overtaken in the table.
• If France win and Wales don’t pick up any bonus points, or France win with a bonus point and Wales pick up only one bonus point, then it will all come down to that France v Scotland match.

Taking that third scenario, there are several permutations around that final France v Scotland match too:

• If France beat both Wales and Scotland but without any bonus points (ie eight match points in all), Wales will lift the trophy.
• If France beat both Wales and Scotland with try bonus points (ie ten match points in all), and Wales don’t get any type of bonus point in Paris, France win the title.
• If France and Wales finish level on points in the table – 19 or 20 depending on the number of bonus points each team picks up – then the title will come down to points difference. If points difference ends up being the same for both teams, the title will then be decided on how many tries each country has scored throughout the tournament.

Let’s see how things play out in Paris on Saturday night.

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